GAS PRESSURE - “ELEPHANTS” CONQUER EUROPEAN MARKET
Turkish market
Last summer Iranian gas delivery to Turkey started, on February 3 of this year Russia -Italy “Blue Stream” was launched, Persian countries “aim” at Turkish market. Iran has already become a first Persian Gulf country delivering gas to European market by pipeline. As far back as 1996, concluding an agreement with Turkey on delivery of natural gas within 22 years, Iran intends to export to this country from 2,3 billion cubic meters up to 30 billion cubic meters. This year according to the signed documents, Russia will deliver 6,5 million cubic meters of gas to Turkey by this pipeline. In 2007, when the gas pipeline is intended to reach full capacity, this indication will rise till 16 billion cubic meters annually. According to “Gasprom”, Turkish side already completes the construction of the electric power station in the Samsun province, which will be working with Russian gas. Furthermore, low demand on natural gas of the Persian Gulf, must not mislead anybody. This region possesses a great export potential and this factor are to be taken into account. In this condition- invasion of “elephants” by pettier producer of natural gas with the lapse of time will be more difficult to find independently the place in this such a “popular” market of “blue fuel”.Particularly Turkish economy suffers crisis, from which he fails to “scramble out” for many years. Therefore, understands that he will fail to overdo with such enormous volume of “blue fuel” within the contracts in force on “purchase and sale” of gas.
During last year Turkey reduced the gas demand rate six times. On January, 2003 Turkish State Company BOTAS again reduced its rates, this time by 1,843 billion cubic meters. According to the BOTAS calculations, the country will need of 23,953 billion cubic meters in the current year, before this number was 25,796 billion cubic meters.
In 2003 he difference between the delivery and consumption will make up 1,987 billion cubic meters, that is, Turkey will need 23,953 billion cubic meters of gas, but the import volume to the country will be 25,940 cubic meters.
Scheme of events development within gas consumption during 18 years will be as follows:
In this way, from above indicated numbers it is shown that in 17 years Turkey intends to increase volume of the consumed gas to 58,832 billion cubic meters.
In January 2002 Turkey managed to pay only 80% of imported gas. That’s why Ankara time and again tried to change terms and conditions of agreements with Russia and Iran on their gas purchasing, and recently liven up the attempts to re-export “blue fuel” to Europe, delivered to the country within concluded agreements. Turkey has already managed to reduce the price of supplied Iranian and Russian gas. Zeki Cakan, ex- minister of Turkish Energy and Natural Resources announced on September 11, 2002 that BOTAS and Russian company GazExport revised some terms of agreements on gas delivery from Russia within “Blue Stream” project. The parties reach the settlement on cutting down the price for the imported gas; now it downed for 9%, so, Turkey saved $ 280,4 million on Russian gas purchasing. It must be mentioned that Turkey once more claimed its intention on taking an active part in construction of the gas pipeline, which will length from giant Azerbaijan field “Shah-Deniz” through Tbilisi to the Turkish Erzurum and further till Ankara. After 2008 it is planed to expand this trunk line till Istanbul, as well as till Bulgaria. It is to be reminded that at the end of last year in Athens was held a discussion on re- export perspectives of Azerbaijan gas from “Shah-Deniz” which DEPA, SOCAR, Turkish BOTAS and a number of gas firms of Balkans countries representatives took part in. Moreover, according to statements of SOCAR President Natig Aliyev, Athens assure purchasing of 500 million cubic meters of Azerbaijan gas, which will be transported to Turkey. But, indeed, it is not an additional gas volume: delivery to Greece will be conducted within Azerbaijan export to Turkey (primary 2 billion cubic meters).
It also must be noted that this information was met frostily in BP-Azerbaijan Company. According to the statement of its head David Woodward, BP representatives did not participate in negotiations in Athens. “We are planning the delivery of gas to Turkish BOTAS, others - are the matters of the Turkish side: where it will transport these volumes - to domestic market or Greece. In the future, of course, we may be interested in European market” - he said. Nevertheless, such cool relationship may be explained by this fact that the marketing of the European market will be carried out by Norwegian Statoil. It will head the company which will be created by participants of the project “Shah-Denis” for analysing scope for sale of Azerbaijani gas to Europe market. Therefore in opinion of a number of analysts, for transportation of gas European market is more perspective than Turkish, as it has undertaken more responsibilities on purchase of oil, and now its import indicators exceed the volume of this fuel consumption (as is seen from the above mentioned figures in the table).
“No doubt, Turkey will fulfil its obligations under already signed agreement with Azerbaijan “on purchase” of gas. And the perspectives for increase are scanty”, - state the analysts. Azerbaijan also doesn’t have perspectives for oil transportation to the Southern countries, as Iran. Iran is the second country in the world for its gas resources and itself is interested in sale markets.
If even Azerbaijan transports gas to the Iranian side, it will be connected only with re-export idea or with realisation of swap operations.
Turkey considers when it gets 6.6 billion gas annually from Azerbaijan till 2009, fuel can be re-exported from Turkish territory to European countries. For example, Greece at present receives from Russia 3 billion cubic meters gas annually. And till 2010 gas import must increase twice. At the same time transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Greece will be aimed not at meeting energy needs of Greece, but at transporting it further to Slovenia, Croatia and from there to Germany, Italy and France. At present European markets cover only 30-35% of its gas requirements.
According to President of State Oil Company AR (SOCAR), today European Union (EU) countries are interested in search of alternative sources of natural gas. Therefore EU intends to establish strong economic relations between Greece and Turkey. Gas girth between Turkey (Karacabey) and Greece (Kamatini) with total length 280 km will be build in 2005.
It should be stated that during negotiations in Greece between SOCAR and Greek state DEPA, the last didn’t declare any volumes. “At present the matter concerns creation of new conditions for possible transportation of Azerbaijani oil to Greece and further to Europe. Caspian region is the main alternative source of natural gas supply for Europe. Therefore in the framework of first stage, EU allocated grant to Greece for preparation of feasibility estimation of the girth between gas nets of Turkey and Greece”, - stated N. Aliyev.
He thinks that girth between these countries will enable direct supply of Azerbaijani gas to Greece.
Financing of construction of pipeline Karajabey-Kamatini (Turkey - Greece) will be realised from every state’s own means.
On the whole, Greece supports direct supply of Azerbaijani gas to this country and further to Central Europe. N. Aliyev stated that it’s very important for Azerbaijan to provide with sale market “Stage-2” full-scale development of “Shah-Deniz” project. “Stage-1” today is fully provided with fuel supply to Turkey. Therefore at present the matter of reliable and stable gas delivery, irrespective of volumes, must be settled.
Azerbaijan plans to deliver to Turkey 89.2 billion cubic meters of gas in the frame of project “Shah-Deniz” through pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum. In 2007 the country will supply to Turkish market - 3 billion cubic meters, in 2008 - 5 billion cubic meters and in 2009-2020 per 6.6. billion cubic meters of natural gas.
Demands of Turkey
Demands of Turkey in energy supply by 2010-2020 will rise four times. Recently, 48% of electricity was generated on oil incineration, 29% - on coal, 14% - on natural gas, 5% - on hydro electric power station and 10% from other resources. Percentage ratio of local energy supply to import falls every year. In 2020 local energy supply will make up 25%. From all imported energy supplies crude oil makes up 70% which is 20% of entire import of the country.
European market
In second five year plan of the new millennium natural gas demand, as is expecting, will go on rising and its satisfy by suppliers will play an important role in providing an economic “health” of the continent and its competitiveness within world economy.
For the demand calculation let’s follow the same route, used for defining its size as of 2005. calculations of American Researchers EIA asserts that in 2010 European economy will need of, according to optimistic estimate, 640 billion cubic meters.
Keeping up the average pace of gas demand increment, in accordance with BP Statistical Review, equaling 2,98% year rate, we calculate an alternate (pessimistic) version of demand, the level of which will make up 612 billion cubic.
Let’s see, the picture of the natural gas proposal in Europe as of 2010.
European supplier
Major supplier to the West European market remained Russia, Algeria and countries of North Sea basin (Norway, Great Britain, Netherlands), which proposed to European market 408 billion cubic meters or more 80% of consumed gas in Europe last year.
By 2010 with all its might three groups of new suppliers will declare about themselves in the market of the continent: African countries, Republics of former USSR, and Persian Gulf countries, which develop their gas industry actively at present. It is an advantage-ground of diversification as energy accident prevention may be accompanied by price cutting down.
In 2005 while the gas demand in Europe will be 520-570 billion cubic meters, supply, according to our calculation, will make up 580-610 billion cubic meters. In 2010 these indications can maximally make up 610-640 billion cubic meters, 670-700 billion cubic meters, accordingly.
* Great Britain:
* 105,8 billion cubic meters
Great Britain is in the rise of its natural gas production, apex of which according to the calculation of British energy center, falls at 2005-2006. Reserve volume of the country in continental shelf of North and Ireland sea will make up totally 730 billion cubic meters. Continental shelf deposit provided the production of 105,8 billion cubic meters, according to information of BP Statistical Review. Great Britain not only launched to self providing of natural gas but also got an opportunity to export 12.1 billion cubic meters to the continent. Taking into account the internal consumption, the share of the country in European market makes up 21,8%
* Norway
In the production of 56,6 billion cubic meters of the continental shelf deposit, Norway consumed totally 6 billion cubic meters in the domestic market, exporting the rest of the gas to European market. Main buyers of Norwegian natural gas in Europe are 5 German Companies and Ruhrgas being among them, French Company Gas de France, Netherlands - Gasunie and SEP and other firms of Spain, Austria, Belgian, Italy, Poland and Czechoslovakia. In these markets Norwegian gas compete with Russian export. Major sale market today is considered to be Germany, where the share of Norwegian gas make up approximately 30%. On the whole, Norway provided 11,6% of consumed gas in Europe in last year.
* Netherlands and rest of Europe
Today this country is the major gas exporter inside of EC, while its production for the last 5 years timely was restrained artificially. Presently, attempts are taken to find in the territory of the country new deposit of natural gas, with exploitation of which it can substitute gas field Groningen being in the stage of declining production. But special success has not been achieved, nevertheless, the country produced 61,4 billion cubic meters in 2001. In 2001 Netherlands export to other countries of EC, according to MEA, made up 48,8 billion cubic meters, and taking into account internal consumption, the country was holding 12,6% of European market.
Other producers of natural gas, among which the most maximal level of production belongs to Germany (21 billion cubic meters), do not poses a serious force in Europe. In the aggregate these countries were able to provide totally 12,3% of consumed gas in the continent in 2001, which made up 59,5 billion cubic meters.
* Algeria and Nigeria
African natural gas exporters - “traditional” Algeria and “new” Nigeria - feel themselves with confidence in the European market and first of all in South Europe, Italy and Spain. Both producers, in spite of considerable home policy problems, possess quite good chances to expand their segment in EC market. As long as, Algeria provides 11% of consumed gas in Europe, and Nigeria only 1,3%.
In 2001 Algeria provided, with the assistance of pipeline and tanker fleet, export of common and liquefied gas to Italy and Spain at the level of 53,7 billion cubic meters. According to EIA calculations, in 2002 the country reached the level 56,6 billion cubic meters. Presently, natural gas supply to South Europe, is fulfilled from major African field XassiP’Mel, reserve of which makes up, according to information of the company Sonatrach, 2,4 trillions cubic meters. As far as the growing demand in Europe market, the gas industry of Algeria will develop with up-tempo, according to the agreement on exploitation of other gas province between Algeria and different majors, as well as the country’s course forward to oil-gas complex liberalisation.
Nigeria, is the second African supplier, which realised with assistance of trans-national companies Shell, Total Elf and Agip in 1999, project on production of liquefied natural gas in the Bonnie Island district (with total value of $3,8 billion), “reserved” the place in European gas market, by exporting to the continent, according to BP Statistical Review, 5,6 billion cubic meters in 2000 and 6,75 billion cubic meters in 2001.
* UAE and others
Among the Persian Gulf countries the largest activity, indeed, still not comparable with independent participants of gas suppliers to Europe, in 2001, was displayed by UAE. Volume of export of this country made up 3,4 billion cubic meters, which is 2 times less than Nigerian supply. Oman and Qatar results are more decent, therefore, we do not extract them separately, but added to the category “supply from other countries”. In all supply from other sources (Trinidad and Tobago, Libya, Malaysia and others) to Europe market in 2001 provided hardly more than 2% consumption of natural gas, which made up 10,55 billion cubic meters.
* Egypt
It is considered that in 2005 in Europe market will appear a new player, having power to export to the continent 14,9 billion cubic meters. This new exporting - country of liquefied gas will be Egypt which will remain the very important export corridor for oil and gas of Persian Gulf.
Foreign oil-gas companies launched more active research for seeking natural gas in the country at the early in 90’s and in a short period find its large reserves in delta of Nil and West desert. By the end of 2002 production, according to EIA, will make up 31 billion cubic meters. British Gas, BP, ENI-agip, Shell have been already involved in natural gas exploring and production in the delta of Nil. Spain companies Repsol and Apache produce gas in West desert.
In 2002 a new governmental company Egyptian Natural Holding Gas Company (EGAS) has been separated from Egyptian Petroleum Company, which have to become the main partner of foreign companies on development of gas resources of the country and providing with the export to South Europe in the future. Developing gas industry, the Egyptian government considers to make it, one of the major export products. It was decided to construct the gas pipeline to Turkey with Italy assistance, which can be completed in 2003. the second export project of Egypt realises together with company Union Fenosa, signed an agreement with EGPC on July, 200 for the purchasing of liquefied gas from a new gas terminal in Damiette. Producing capacity of this enterprise, according to the plans, will be 4 billion cubic meters. Gas will be delivered to power stations of the company in Spain and will be sold to other EC consumers.
* Persian Gulf
It can be said about possible expanding the supply of natural gas from Persian Gulf territory. Total Qatar, UAE, Oman and Iran will be able to supply to European market minimum 16 15,11 billion cubic meters. By 2005 realisation of the three projects in Qatar (Qatargas, Rasgas, Dolphin), two in Oman (Xengam and Xafar)and two in UAE (Bab and Asan) will allow these countries to increase their participation in Europe, though the major exporting market for them will remain Asia-Pacific region (ATP). But, if the first three countries have already realised several times delivery of liquefied gas to Europe, it looks as if Iran will become the first country of Persian Gulf which will supply gas to European continent through pipeline. As far back as 1996 , after concluding an agreement with Turkey on gas delivery within 22 years, Iran plans to export 2,3 billion cubic meters annually to this country. Low level of consumption of Persian Gulf to Europe must not device anybody. This region possesses a huge export potential, and Russians have to take into account this factor.
* Central Asia
By 2010 Central Asia countries and, as stated above, Azerbaijan will aim at development of their gas industry and establish export policy, based on diversification of delivery to different market with the purpose to avoid excess dependence on countries, providing transit their gas to the perspective market of the world. Approximately three times growth of gas consumption to European market will be able to provide “the near” foreign countries, furthermore, in spite, whether Russia will agree to provide corridor or not. In whole they will be able to provide minimum supply to Europe at the level of 61 billion cubic meters. It will seem as follow per country.
Kazakhstan by 2010, according to the Development of Gas Line Conception till 2015, plans to export 23,85 billion cubic meters in the maximum production capacity of 70 billion cubic. It is expected the production growth in Karachaganak (till 26,8 billion), in Tengis (till 14,1billion) and in shelf Kashagan (till 8 billion), where it is planning to launch the production in 2004.
Deposit capacity of the field is estimated to be 450 billion cubic meters.
Possibility of export of Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe in many cases will depend on dates of realisation of the project “Shah-Deniz” with proved capacity of 700 billion cubic meters. In transportation plan, country can pursue the absolutely independent policy in contrast to Central Asian exporters, which have to consider with Russia and Iran from the point of geographical view. If Azerbaijan will manage to complete the construction of the new pipeline (with total value $2 billion) till Erzurum with BP assistance, then, Azerbaijan will be able to realise its gas strategy, meaning to attract other suppliers for filling the gas pipeline. Potential countries consuming Azerbaijani natural gas, will besides Turkey be , Greece, Rumania and Bulgaria.
Great expectations in 2006-2010 in Turkmenistan may be tied with the project on construction of Trans-Caspian pipeline, the final aim of which is to get to the market of the North European countries through Turkey. Total value of this great project, supported by Royal Dutch/Shell, can make up $1 billion. But Turkey, in the case of realisation of the project “Blue Stream” with Russia, can toughen its claims on transit payments. Russia in order to normalise “gas” relationship with Turkmenistan, may afford an opportunity to export by 2010 25 billion cubic, according to INEN RAN, in exchange for refusal in realisation Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project. With this purpose in Ashgabat at the middle of February head of Gazprom Aleksey Miller held negotiations. Taking into account that Turkmenistan will strive to diversify own delivery to the regional markets, one can assumed that, by this time the country will actively develop North Asia and ATR market.
In this way, exporting countries will become more, which will promote realisation of EC directives and three new market forces - African, former USSR and Persian Gulf countries, will present themselves in full force in the struggle for European Market.
* Russian perspectives
According to the annual report of “Gazprom”, total capacity of natural gas supply to Europe, both to East and West, made up 126,9 billion cubic meters which is 26,2 % of consumption. With bringing into development “Zapolyarnoe” field, it became possible temporary overcoming a negative tendency in gas production, related with real transition to the declining production stage in major fields of Gasprom - Medvedjego and Urengoiskogo, as well as in Yamburg. Russian export plays an important role in East Europe countries and possesses a stable position in EC market, however, for holding current share of the market Russia has to actively develop new gas provinces.
In whole by 2010, according to the Energy strategy project, Russia intends to produce 655 cubic meters. Drawers of this document didn’t define more exactly who and in what quantity has to produce gas, didn’t concretise either the role of “Gasprom” or independent producers. According to Russian analytical issue “Neftegazovaya Vertical” writings, speaking about situation in 2010, will try to proceed from the following basic backgrounds of reforming in Europe, which begin to form as early as today:
1. Russia will take attempts directed to the liberalisation of domestic gas market. This process will be accompanied by increase of prices for natural gas which will make more profitable investment in gas industry both for “Gasprom” and independent producers as well as for foreign investors.
2. Price increases, as it is expected, will promote stabilisation of natural gas consumption approximately at the level of 420 billion cubic meters. Additional factors, which can favour for stabilisation, may be programs on power supply within separate economy industry, conducted on the basis of gas consumption audit. “Gazprom” already begins taking attempts in reducing gas consumption inside the company.
3. Necessary level of gas export, produced in Russia, to CIS territory will be 40-50 billion cubic meters in 2010, if taking into consideration the potential of consumption by Byelorussia, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine.
4. Proceeding from above mentioned calculated changes of situation in domestic market, “Vertikal” supposed that “Gasprom” will manage to stabilize its production by 2010 at the level of 500 billion cubic meters.
In this way, aggregate consumption of Russian gas in Russia in CIS will make up approximately 460-470 billion cubic meters. If take the minimal Russian export indications as a basis in 2010 at the level of the maximum reached by 2005 of 160 billion cubic meters, then it appears that Russia, have to produce total as minimum as 620 billion cubic meters but so as to feel itself with confidence in the European market before rivals, has to expand export.
It is easy to count that to hold out on the level of 2005, country will need in production of gas by independent producers of gas at the level of 120 billion cubic meters but so as to solve the second problem, independent producers must together produce 150 billion cubic meters. Not an easy problem, taking into account that presently this indication is 2 times less than current and so far, independent producers, we have already mentioned above, lack of any incentive for its substantial increase.
There is little likelihood that the first indication may be achieved at the expense of “natural” increase in production during 8 years and concrete attempts are needed to stimulate the independent producers to reach the second indication. Maximal indication of natural gas production by independent producers in 150 billion cubic meters is denoted in different calculations of West scientifically-research centers and analytical publications.
At the same time A. Miller last summer declared that by 2008 “Gasprom”, taking into account Yamal program, will be able to provide export to EC countries of 175-205 billion cubic meters. Estimate is also repeated by American specialists from EIA, who calculates that annual Russian gas export to Europe by this time will make up average 190 billion cubic meters. Now comparing the numbers of expected consumption in Russia and gas production by “Gazprom”, we come to the conclusion that if the condition for attracting independent producer will lack, present monopolist will have to choice: whether to fulfil export deliveries to Europe, keeping only part of produced gas to its country, or provide supply within the country, breaking the fulfilment of export contracts.
In both cases export to Europe at the level of 175-205 billion cubic meters by 2010, as a result of efforts of sole “Gazprom”, seems excessively optimistic.
General conclusions
On the whole by 2010 consumption of natural gas in renovated EC will raise nearly in 1,3 times in comparison with consumption of natural gas in Western and Eastern Europe in 2001, which will require searching of new supply sources. The market will be expanding, but dynamic changes will occur inside. Great Britain and Norway, after reaching the peak of gas production by 2005, substantially will reduce their share in providing the continent. Cutting down production in other European markets, opens perspectives for import expanding. Totally, Europe (first of all Great Britain and Norway) will be able to provide independently only 30% of their consumption in natural gas in 2010, while in 2001 this indication was 63%. Freed niches of European market will be occupied by other exporters. Russia in case of commission of additional production power and with assistance of independent producers may rise its share till 30%. Algeria, increasing the production by 2010 more than 1,5 times, will be able to provide 13% of natural gas demand in Europe.
New exporters - African, Caspian Basin, and Persian Gulf countries, actively developing their program on natural gas production - will come to other segments of the market, freed at the result of reducing production in continent. It can be supposed that Persian Gulf countries will mainly supply liquefied gas and it is their mobility. Though the major region for gas delivery from this region will be ATP, Persian Gulf countries, first of all Qatar and Oman, will be in position with the help of tankers of a new type, if there will be an opportunity to reorient supply to Europe.
Central Asia countries and Azerbaijan can realise breakthrough in European market irrespective of Russia’s will to help or to hinder this event. Governments of European countries, interested in diversification of supplies will help them. They consider gas industry development of these countries as a source of profit.
However gradually, Russia’s “gas pressure” directed to co-ordination of Central Asia states’ gas export plans with its own gas-transport system. Trans-Caspian project on export of gas though Azerbaijani territory is buried at present. And Azerbaijan can’t launch its Baku-Erzurum gas pipeline construction. Especially since rates for Russia are very high, because these plans are almost basic components of RF gas strategy for the nearest decades. Otherwise “Russia can loose up to 20% of profit in hard currency from natural gas sale, moreover she can loose European markets”. Judging from the current condition, such scenario, unfortunately, can be fully realised. Therefore, according to experts, Russia needs to leave everything as it is.
Creation of JE “KazRosGas” in Kazakhstan, production projects of Russia in Uzbekistan, supposed contract with delivery of Turkmen gas in the net of Gasprom. All these once again prove that if this year Azerbaijan doesn’t launch construction Baku-Erzurum, then increasing import of gas “Itera” and further delay of “Shah-Deniz” project realisation may delay construction of Baku-Erzurum for an unknown period. An as is known good place never remains vacant, Azerbaijan place in European market can be taken by any other above-mentioned suppliers, and as practice shows to become firmly established in this market is very difficult. At the same time, dependence from Russian gas suppliers can increase (“Itera” and probably “Transnafta”). Azerbaijan extracts almost 4 billion cubic meters annually, and “Itera”s supply this year already will make up 5.5 billion cubic meters.
Supply volume of gas to Azerbaijan by International Company Group “ITERA” in 2002 made 3.892 billion cubic meters, which is over the import in 2001 for 800 million cubic meters. “Oreanda” Agency was informed about it in Baku representation of MGK “”ITERA. For the last year “ITERA” owed to State Oil Company of Azerbaijan 108 million cubic meters of gas, which will be filled out in January. Gas supplies for 2002 were coordinated by the parties at the volume of 4 billion cubic meters. At present daily gas supplies to Azerbaijan make up 15 million cubic meters.
Under the agreement with SOCAR, “ITERA” started gas supplies to Azerbaijan since the autumn of 2002, at the beginning at the price of 48$ per 1 000 cubic meters, and then 52$ for the same gas volume. This year “ITERA” intends to increase gas supplies to the country from 4 to 5.5 billion cubic meters.
Thus, if is it continues like this, Azerbaijan will have to make “gas compromise” with Russia, as other Central-Asian republics.
Meanwhile, balance of demand and supply for natural gas in 2005 and 2010, according to some domestic and foreign scientists, can be reached due to reorientation of residud volumes of natural gas liquefaction to US and ATR. Here it is a question of Nigeria, Algeria and countries of the Middle East, which due to their geographical location can be chosen between supplies to markets of North America, ATR or Europe.
For Azerbaijan, as for other suppliers, keeping European market of natural gas is of great importance, since it can play a role of one of main sources for filling Azerbaijani budget.
For Russia, “Gasprom” will have to make room to independent companies, because without their participation, neither gas supply to Russian economy, no fulfilment of export contracts will be carried out in necessary capacity.
If today no measures for development of gas industry are taken, according to some American experts, Azerbaijan can in future loose gas-export article in its budget.
Material of BP Statistical Review of World Energy, EIA, NGV were used in the article