THE FURTHER TO THE FOREST THE MORE WOOD
BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN'S IMPORTANCE KEEPS GROWING
The ecological problems of great projects often acquire in majority cases a special sharpness either just before their realization or already in their realization. The international and local organizations of various forms, modifications and generation make efforts "to put a spoke into the wheels" of already "leaving train" motivating and often speculating the ecological factor. Everybody knows that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) project is one of the most geo-politically hard project to be executed and for the number of over-come obstacles (if to count them) could enter the notorious "Guinnes' book" of records. Directly proportionally the said pipeline is necessary at least for two countries involved in it, Azerbaijan and Turkey, for the development of their economies under the strategic support of the USA. BTC is necessary for the developing the economy of Turkey as well, from the point of view, that the Bosphorous and Dardanelles Straits passing through her densely populated area are literally "swarm" with oil tankers and the problem threatens to swell even more in future, and in this line the Azerbaijanian pipeline is perceived as an ecological rescue for Turkish straits.
The "ecological war" waged in the territory of Georgia by some forces related to alleged peril of the Borzhomi valley through which the pipeline is to be laid has become one of the above mentioned obstacles. And as soon as the British bp undertook unprecedented safety measures on the pipeline section, official Georgia consented with correctness of evidences in favor of the pipeline construction on the previously approved route, and President Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia assured the public that if the ecological peril had been real, any concession would be ruled out in the choice of the government and the community, but still the non-governmental organizations fail to get quiet.
So the scientists and non-governmental organizations (NGO) expressed their support to the BTC pipeline project at the seminar that took place last February in Tbilisi, but they again underlined that the pipeline could non pass through Borzhomi valley. The scientists think the route has no option. But the option is laying the pipeline through the Akhalkalaki region- Samtskhe-Javakheti region of South Georgia densely populated by Armenians.
By the way, if to view the map this region of Georgia also possesses lots of ecological sights and rivers. And according to reason and ensuring the ordinary safety, probability of terrorist act, and the pollution of the environment in this region is much more than in any region in case the pipeline is laid.
Despite the fact that the problem is being exaggerated for already more than half a year, Ilham Aliyev, vice president of SOCAR, came out more distinctly about it few days ago, "some forces have always tried to oppose the realization of the oil projects in Azerbaijan, but they shifted to open opposition just at the last moment, when it became obvious that it was impossible to impede these projects". I. Aliyev thinks, Armenia and Armenian Diaspora abroad and some forces sympathizing them are the organizers of all this. According to SOCAR high ranked official, there has been no contradiction towards the projects on the part of other states. Having witnessed that the BTC project steps over to the stage of realization, Armenians opened a site in Internet and shower the International Financial Corporation (IFC), the World Bank (WB) and other international financial structures by letters containing misinformation about the project. Their basic purpose is to create tension in those territories of Georgia through which the pipeline is to run, and thus, to force the change of the route". They aim at converting the artificially exaggerated problem of Borzhomi and force to change the route in a way that it would pass via the Akhalkalaki region of Georgia, where Armenians use to live mainly. What will it benefit them with? First, the realization of the project will drag off, thus, causing great financial losses not only to Azerbaijan, but also to those companies participating in the project. Secondly, if the pipeline passes through the said territory, it won't rule out in future all types of subversions on the route. This we cannot allow", said Ilham Aliyev. I. Aliyev also noted the Armenians living in the USA were going to hold an international conference this March, the main purpose of which is to slander the BTC project. Various non-governmental organization supporting the idea have been invited to take part in the said conference. I. Aliyev noted with regret that even in Azerbaijan there were people coming out against the project.For instance, I.Aliyev reminded that a certain Alizada (unidentified) came out against the BTC. Leyla Yunus, too, assaults the project unceasingly. To be short, I.Aliyev pointed out, efforts are made in Azerbaijan to create the "fifth column". The people that come out against the national interests are to be rebuffed. At the same time, I. Aliyev pointed out that he did not blame the Azerbaijanian non-governmental organizations opposing the project in their cooperation with Armenia. Simply their positions got coincided, he added.
Speaking about positive changes to take place after the BTC MEP is built, I. Aliyev noted that great financial streams would inflow into Azerbaijan, which in their turn, would strengthen Azerbaijan' potential in settling the Qarabag problem. Therefore, Armenia isn't too enthusiastic about Azerbaijan's economical growth.
Thus, the echo of Armenian-Azerbaijanian conflict reached Georgia and was picked up by Georgian ecologists and human rights' defenders with variable success. It should be noted without going into political crux of what is happening, that any oil and gas project is related in a certain degree with ecological risk and when, roughly speaking, you have to make a choice between two evils, usually the least one is chosen, insuring as much as possible from the biggest. Georgia had to chose between the extremely exaggerated and faked racket around the Borzhomi valley and the vital need of ensuring the country's energy security, which includes, as Georgiy Chanturia, president of Georgian International Oil Corporation (GIOC), said, $250 mln a year from transit dividends of pumping oil via BTC only. Georgia is also to receive 5% of the blue fuel for the transit in the form of tariffs as soon as the parallel to BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) gasline is put into operation. In case the gasline is fully loaded Georgia is to receive 1.5 bln c/m of gas , whereas, currently she consumes 750 mln c/m of gas per annum. Besides, Georgia will have the opportunity to realize annually 500 mln c/m gas on preferential prices, which she is going to buy from Azerbaijan at 55$ per 1,000 c/m.
In this case, the thing isn't only in permanent Armenian onslaughts against Azerbaijanian projects, but also in the assessment of the economical expediency of the project, which keeps growing from day to day from the start of the pipeline construction. The thing is, another large regional oil exporter is on the verge of joining the BTC. The next round of negotiations about Kazakhstan's joining the BTC MEP construction is to take place shortly, Andar Shukputov, ambassador of Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan said.
According to him, besides the presidents of SOCAR and KazMunayGaz, Steven Mann, special adviser of the USA administration for Caspian Energy Diplomacy, is to take part in the negotiations. This is to be the 4th rendezvous of the working groups of the two countries, the previous talks took place in Baku and London, Media-Press reported. The parties have got to develop the intergovernmental agreement, as well as an agreement between Kazakhstan and the foreign oil companies functioning in that country and which are the shareholders of the BTC Co. The terms of Kazakhstan's joining the $2.95 bln MEP project with a carrying capacity of 50 mln tons of oil year are to become aware as soon as the documents are signed. But the registration of the documents will last to the end of this year.
Azerbaijanian - Kazakh negotiations on the matter are going on since November 2002. Their first round took place here in Baku between State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) and KazMunayGaz National Company of Kazakhstan. The talks finished with a statement of Kazakh partner about her intention to transport after all a part of her oil along the BTC. Kayirgeldi Kabildin , managing director of the KazMunayGaz transport infrastructure and maintenance projects, said after the talks were over that , according to his estimations Kazakhstan could export up to 20 mln tons of oil a year by means of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. However, according to the statement of David Woodward, president of bp-Azerbaijan, the carrying capacity of the BTC MEP can be increased only by 20% and brought to 60 mln tons a year. Oil output at the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli(ACG) block of fields can reach 50 mln tons by 2008 and it will fully load MEP, the carrying capacity of which is known to be measured by the said figure. Whereas, Kazakhstan hopes to pump 20 mln tons of oil a year along MEP, to put it otherwise, more than MEP can receive, as her capacity will have to be raised to 70 mln tons a year, but not 60 as supposed under extension of the pipeline's carrying capacity. To be short, the significance of the BTC pipeline keeps growing, and it isn't too difficult to predict, in case Kazakhstan's further switching on to the project of regional strategic importance and its development, the resistance of its opponents can grow as the saying goes, " the further to the forest the more wood".
Under total length of 1,760 km 1,070 km of MEP is to be laid via the territory of Turkey, 442 km via the territory of Azerbaijan and 248 km in the territory of Georgia. The Spie Capag/Petrofac alliance is the contractor for the construction of the Georgian section of the pipeline and the pumping stations in the territory of both Azerbaijan and Georgia. Eight pumping stations are to be built in the entire stretch of the MEP. Four of them are to be built in Turkey, while two in each of Georgia and Azerbaijan. AzerKorpu is also to prepare the construction sites for pumping stations both in Azerbaijan and Georgia.
The construction cost of the pipeline's Turkish section is to make $1.4 bln, and $600 mln for each of Azerbaijanian and Georgian sections. Additional $200 mln are to be spent for general management of the project. The construction work is to start directly next April and to come to an end in 30 months.