TRANSPORT TSUNAMI IN THE CASPIAN "JURIDICAL CASPIAN STATUS" HAVE A REST

"Caspian Energy" analytical group

With continuing growth of price to energy carriers in the world markets together with oil producers powers there increase the necessity in additional export routes and expansion of existent. At the same time, there increases the requirement in the second transport component of hydrocarbon resources export and petroleum derivatives - marine fleet.

The largest flotilla in the center of Eurasian oil and gas production of the Caspian is quite necessary. It is important because of the commissioning of strategy transport route Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan "named after Heydar Aliyev" and the transport carriers rely for its free power. The present orders of companies operating in the field of marine transport on the contracts of projects' participants increase. In the nearest decade the production and investment activity of producer companies in the Caspian region will provide for vessel market with higher rhythm of development.

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan does not exclude the opportunity in creation of new private port in the territory of the Republic. According to Deputy Minister of Transport of the Republic of Azerbaijan Musa Panakhov the construction of new port was offered by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. On advance bank's estimation the construction of new port will be at $50 mln. It can be built outside of the city (in Hovsany for example) that will make good for entrance.

The oil terminals in Azerbaijan are built by private companies (Azpetrol) or rented (Middle East Petrol). However the cargo terminal of Baku International Marine Trade Port does not operate. Previously it fulfilled the receiving and unloading of pipes for BP projects but it became unnecessary after launching of Eupec for pipes' cementing which has unloading area. Container port's terminal designed for handling of 25.000 containers for a year practically stands. Only ferry terminal operates here but today port independently fulfills its reconstruction. There is not expected the changing of its location in the nearest future.

Azerbaijan State Caspian Shipping (Kaspar) is a major carrier in region. "Kaspar" shipped into different Caspian ports in 2004 9.36 mln. ton of bulk-oil cargoes (look at Table 1) that more than for 5 percent more than last year.

Steamship line takes $6-8 per ton of oil depending on route. Company has 38 tankers but it increases its oil fleet. Last year steamship line has already received two tankers from Nizhniy Novgorod, and it is going to receive three more tankers in the second half of 2006. For three years "Kaspar" increased oil transportation power for 15%.

At the end of January "Kaspar" made new order to Nizhni Novgorod plant "Krasnoye Sormovo". Customer needs two oil tankers with tonnage of 13.000 ton each and totally at $31 mln.

"Kaspar" ordered new tankers because present year there will appear in Transcaspian Export route new suppliers of fluids, for example Malaysian "Petronas". Their number will be increased so as a volume of tanker shipments and steamship line is getting ready for export of "big" East Caspian oil.

By the vessels of "Kaspar" for the Q I of 2005 were shipped 3 mln. and 236.000 tons of different cargoes, that more of the forecast for 236.000 tons and more of the figure of the same period in 2004 for 59.000 tons.

From the total volume of shipped cargoes by tankers of "Kaspar" made 2,39 mln. tons, by ferry - 574.000 tons, dry cargo ship - 272.000 tons. The major part of cargo shipments was implemented between the ports of CIS (Aktau-Makhachkala, Okarem-Turkmenbashy, Turkmenbashy-Makhachkala).

Through the Eurasia transport corridor Caspian (Aktau-Baku, Aktau-Absheron, Aktau-Sangachal, Okarem-Baku, Okarem-Absheron, Okarem-Sangachal, Turkmenbashy-Baku, Turkmenbashy-Absheron, Turkmenbashy-Sangachal, Aladzha-Baku, Aladzha-Absheron, Aladzha-Sangachal) by the vessels of Kaspar were transported 2 mln. and 424.000 tons of cargo (including 2 mln. and 342.000 tons - transits), that more of the figure of the same period in 2004 for 310.000 tons, of stated volume 1 mln. and 835.000 tons were shipped by tankers.

Outside of the Caspian basin by the universal dry cargo fleet of Kaspar was shipped 274.000 tons of cargoes that more of the forecast for 47.000 tons.

This year through Azerbaijan State railway is planned to fulfill the transportation for 7% more oil and petroleum derivatives than last year. In 2004 there was transported 13 mln. tons, informed by M. Panakhov. However, according to him the volume of transportation can be increased.

At present the cargo requests are increased from Kazakhstan's party for oil transportation via Caspian to Azerbaijan ports and further by railway to Georgian ports. There is continued the negotiation with ChevronTexaco about the possibilities of its oil transportation via stated route. As it was mentioned by Deputy Minister it may be significant volumes but it can be expected in 2006-2007.

At the same time, as the representative of Ministry of Transport emphasized the tariffs offered to Kazakhstan cargo suppliers are very competitive. At that moment there is no conversation about their reducing. The existent rates are explained by transport charges.

As M. Panakhov said, Azerbaijan side has possibility to ship the increasing volume of cargoes. The carrying capacity of railway is acceptable. But it is necessary to make more strength the railway's locomotive park. There are matters in Georgian ports' opportunities in refining of increasing oil and petroleum derivatives volumes which will be supplied in future.

In January-March on behalf of Azerbaijan State Railway (ASR) has been transported 3 mln. and 740.000 tons of different cargoes. For the same period of last year the general volume of transportation made 3 mln. and 277.000 tons that for 11,9% less than this year, was mentioned at railway department. From the total volume of transported cargoes the oil and petroleum derivatives made 2 mln. and 823,1.000 tons (crude oil - 1 mln. and 589,7.000 tons) that for 4,4% more of the figure than last year. In the Q I of last year this figure was equaled to 2 mln. and 734.000 tons (crude oil - 1 mln. and 396.000 tons), is said in department.

In January-March 2005 an average loading of carriages made 699,4 and the average unloading of carriages made 557 of carriage.

Kazakhstan

In the North-Eastern coast of the Caspian Sea there is the growth the competitive of shipping national marine company "Kazmortransflot". Entering to the market at the beginning of this decade "Kazmortransflot" shipped in 2004 - 4,029 mln. tons of fluids that almost for 60% more than in 2003.

Kazakhstan still uses the rented vessels but at the end of last year received from Vyborg shipbuilding plant the first 12 thousandth and ordered two more tankers. The vessels will arrive to consumers this year and "Kazmortransflot" is going to enlarge its oil fleet.

The leading export port of the Caspian Sea - Kazakhstan's Aktau shipped in January 2005 the bulk-oil cargoes almost for three more than at the same month of last year. The tankers took from Aktau more than 800.000 tons of fluids instead of less 590.000 tons a year ago. For transshipment Aktau international trade marine port takes $4,71 per ton of crude oil.

The increasing of tanker fleet of Kazakhstan shipping company combines with less success entrance to the market of marine operations supporting in the Caspian Sea.

By the order of Kazakhstan "Astrakhan korabel" plant constructed in 2004 two barges with tonnage 3600 tons. Now they are used for erection of artificial islands at Kashagan field which is operated by Italian "Agip KCO". "Kazmortransflot" plans to order new vessels of different destinations: geophysical, cargoes, protection and so on - for participation in development of the national sector of Caspian Sea. The program of stated development is considered the multiplying of fleet supporting for 100 vessels in the nearest decade (Table 2.).

In 2008 "Kazmortransflot" plans the launching of Kurik with initial power 7.5 mln. tons for year. In time it should increase up to 20 mln. tons of oil for a year and the port will export the production produced on shelf (Kashagan field) and in coastal zone of Mangistau region.

Turkmenistan

Almost the whole volume of Turkmenistan fluids is exported by marine route. The main suppliers in average term perspective should become "Dragon Oil" and "Petronas" up to four million tons by 2010.

However, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan figures have less level in Turkmenistan and the number of operating vessels is oscillated from the rhythm dependant of development of marine oil projects. For example, the implementation of prospecting operations for emirate "Dragon Oil" making increase a number of supporting vessels in the Turkmenistan shelf for 26 pcs. The development of other projects till 2010 will be needed the attraction of extra no less than 50 vessels of different destinations. In Turkmenistan port Ekerem the "Petro Gas" fom Emirates began the repair of pier that is the part of the project by creation of terminal with power 10 mln. tons of bulked cargo for a year. The contractor will get from repair $4.6 mln. and the orders for large-scale construction can make by about $200 mln.

Iran

Iran, which does not fulfill the production in the Caspian Sea also, strives to get honour place among offshore suppliers with laying to Kazakhstan's export.

In April Kazakhstan offered to Iran the unifying of documents about cargo transportation in the Caspian Sea. Taking into consideration the potential of Kazakhstan and Iran in trade-economy sphere, at present there exists the necessity of marine transportation unify between two countries in the Caspian Sea by signing of agreement on transportation of goods on the base of unique Bill of Lading. It was declared by the ambassador of Kazakhstan Sabit Tairov during the meeting with the vice-minister of way and transport, who is at the same time managing director of Ports and Shipping Organization of Iran Ahmad Doniamali.

Furthermore, with the aim of making more simple the cooperation of Aktau port with the ports of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Caspian Sea Kazakhstan party offered the opening of Kazakhstan's Aktau port representation in the port of Anzali and accordingly Anzali port representation in Aktau.

On his behalf, A. Doniamali noted the presence of non-used possibilities in the matter of mutual advantageous cooperation among Aktau port and the North ports of Iran. Iranian party informed that at present time specially for oil transportation in the Caspian Sea Iran implemented order regarding the construction of sixth tonnage tankers with volume at 63.000 tons which will be commissioned after two years. Moreover, he informed that Iranian party fulfills the operation by increasing of goods transshipment power of Anzali port from 1 mln. to 5 mln. tons for a year. For increasing of Kazakhstan's grain transit through the Iranian territory A. Doniamali offered to create the Iran-Kazakhstan company for construction of grain storage in Amirabad port with the demanding infrastructure.

With the aim of discussing of technical issues of cooperation in the field of marine shipments, the parties expressed their readiness to hold in Tehran the meeting of the specialists of Aktau port with the representatives of Ports and Shipping Organization of Iran. the parties have also arranged about visiting of Iranian ports in the Caspian Sea by the Kazakhstan's specialists.

Export provision

The production delaying in "North Caspian" project from 2005 to 2008 temporary stopped the development of offshore service in Kazakhstan. But this stoppage was compensated by disputable of companies and government of Russia regarding the matter of Caspian Pipeline Consortium system's using that automatically increased the actuality of offshore export of the Kazakhstan's oil.

In Kazakhstan today there is developed the projects "North-Caspian" and "Tub-Karagan", in Turkmenistan - "Cheleken" (emirate "Dragon Oil") and "Block-1" ("Petronas"). The number of new projects in the East and North part of the Caspian Sea will multiply.

The commissioning as it was stated at the end of year Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which Kazakhstan would like to call it as Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan designed for export of the East-Caspian oil will become as stimulus for activity of tanker shipments.

International "Tengizshevroil" JV developing the largest onshore Tengiz fields declares about intentions of export beginning from 2006 by 12 mln. tons annually.

"Karachaganak Petroleum Operating Company" operating at Karachaganak field - the second on reserves in Kazakhstan plans to use the sixth big tonnage tankers for exporting of its crude oil, Rusenergy.com informs. Such kind of oil producers in Primorsk zone as JS "Karazhanbasmunay", JS "Mangistaumunaygaz", alliance offshore "Nelson Resources"/China National Oil Company are going to increase its production and the level of tankers' shipments. Offshore transportation are used on behalf of "MunayImpex" (associate trade of the National Company "KazMunayGaz"), international "PetroKazakhstan", JS "Aktobemunaygaz". In 2005 these companies are going to reach the production level for 10 mln. tons of oil for a year and the main of which will be transported.

The listed factors can mean the deficit of oil vessels that make active the development of shipping and shipbuilding companies and stimulates of oil production companies in supporting of own fleet.

In 2005 the regional market of offshore services came into stable development. By the end of the current year the forecasted volume of annual offshore oil transshipment will multiply in 2,5 times in respect of last year's figure more than 9 mln. tons.